Key numbers in NFL betting refer to the most common final score margins. Due to football’s unique scoring structure, certain margins occur far more frequently than others, making them crucial for spread betting decisions.
The Most Important Key Numbers
3 Points
Three is the single most important number in NFL betting. Field goals are common, and games decided by exactly 3 points occur roughly 15% of the time. When a line sits at 3, buying or selling half a point can dramatically affect your win rate.
7 Points
Seven represents a touchdown with an extra point—football’s most common scoring play. Games decided by exactly 7 points occur about 9% of the time, making it the second most important key number.
Other Key Numbers
- 6: Touchdown without extra point or two field goals
- 10: Touchdown plus field goal
- 14: Two touchdowns
- 17: Two touchdowns plus field goal
Practical Applications
Buying Points
If a line sits at -2.5 and you can buy to -3, that half point crosses a key number and is almost always worth the reduced juice. The same applies to lines near 7.
Selling Points
Conversely, selling off key numbers can provide value. Moving from -3.5 to -4 doesn’t cross a key number and can offer better odds.
The Hook
Lines like 3.5 and 7.5 exist specifically because of key numbers. Sportsbooks know bettors value these numbers, so they charge a premium through the “hook” (the half point).
Beyond the Numbers
While key numbers are important, they shouldn’t override your handicapping. A team you see as 5-point favorites shouldn’t become a bet just because the line is 3. Use key numbers to optimize bets you’ve already identified as valuable.