MLB Betting Markets Guide

Baseball's 162-game season and daily schedule create a unique betting market. Unlike other sports, MLB betting centers on moneylines rather than spreads. Starting pitching, bullpen usage, and ballpark factors all play significant roles. This guide covers how MLB betting works and where disciplined bettors may find value.

Moneylines

Unlike most sports, baseball betting centers on moneylines rather than point spreads. This creates a different calculus: taking underdogs at plus-money prices can be profitable even with a sub-50% win rate. Understanding how to assess value on both sides of the moneyline is fundamental.

Run Lines

The run line (+/- 1.5 runs) offers an alternative to straight moneyline betting. Run line favorites offer plus-money prices, while run line underdogs provide cushion at reduced returns. Knowing when to use run lines versus moneylines is a key strategic decision.

Totals

MLB totals are influenced by a complex mix of factors: starting pitchers, bullpen quality, lineup construction, ballpark dimensions, and weather. Successfully betting totals requires synthesizing all these elements into a coherent projection.

Starting Pitching

The starting pitcher is the single most important factor in any MLB game. Ace pitchers can single-handedly suppress opposing offenses, while weak starters put their teams at immediate disadvantage. Evaluating pitcher matchups is the foundation of MLB handicapping.

Bullpen Usage

Modern baseball uses bullpens more heavily than ever, making reliever availability and effectiveness crucial. Understanding workload patterns, platoon advantages, and high-leverage usage helps assess late-game dynamics.

Ballpark and Weather

Baseball venues vary dramatically in their impact on scoring. Coors Field inflates offense; pitcher-friendly parks suppress it. Wind, humidity, and temperature add additional variables. Incorporating these factors into your analysis is essential.