NFL Betting Guide

The NFL is the most bet-on sport in North America. Its weekly schedule, massive media coverage, and scoring structure create unique betting dynamics. This guide explains how NFL betting markets work, what drives line movement, and how to think more clearly about spreads, totals, and props.

NFL betting differs from other major sports in important ways:

• Weekly schedule: Most games happen once a week, giving markets time to process information and adjust prices.
• Key numbers: Football's scoring structure (field goals = 3, touchdowns = 6+1) creates specific margins that matter more than others.
• Injury impact: Smaller rosters and specialized roles mean individual injuries can significantly affect outcomes.
• High public interest: The NFL attracts more casual betting action than most sports, which can influence line movement.

Point spreads

The point spread is the most popular NFL betting market. It's a handicap designed to create roughly equal action on both sides. When a team is favored by 3.5 points (-3.5), they must win by 4 or more for a spread bet to cash. The underdog (+3.5) covers if they win outright or lose by 3 or fewer.

Moneylines

Moneyline bets are simply picking which team wins. No spread is involved. The price adjusts based on each team's implied win probability. In close games (spreads under 3), the moneyline can be a cleaner way to express an opinion.

Totals (over/under)

Totals betting focuses on the combined score of both teams. The sportsbook sets a number (e.g., 47.5), and you bet whether the final combined score will be over or under. NFL totals are influenced by offensive and defensive efficiency, pace, weather, and game script expectations.

Player props

Player props let you bet on individual performance: passing yards, rushing attempts, receptions, touchdowns, and more. They're useful when you have a specific view on how a player will be used or perform in a matchup.

Key numbers are final score margins that occur more frequently due to football's scoring structure:

• 3: The most common margin (field goal difference). Games decided by exactly 3 points are more frequent than any other margin.
• 7: The second most common margin (touchdown + extra point).
• 6, 10, 14, 17: Other key numbers tied to scoring combinations.

When a spread sits on or near a key number (e.g., -3 or -7), half-point differences matter significantly. Moving from -3 to -2.5 or -3.5 crosses a key number and changes the expected win rate.

NFL lines typically open early in the week and move as bets come in and information is processed.

Why lines move

• Sharp action: Informed bettors often bet early, moving lines before the public acts.
• Injury news: Player availability, especially at key positions (QB, pass rusher), can shift lines quickly.
• Weather forecasts: Significant weather changes can move totals and spreads.
• Public money: Heavy betting from recreational bettors on popular teams can move lines.

Market efficiency

NFL betting markets are among the most efficient in sports due to the volume of analysis and betting action. By kickoff, most information is reflected in the price. Finding edges requires discipline and often specialization in areas the broader market undervalues.

Injuries matter more in the NFL than in most other major sports. Smaller rosters, specialized roles, and physical intensity mean that losing a key player can significantly change outcomes.

Key positions to watch

• Quarterback: The most impactful position. A starting QB injury can swing spreads by 3-7 points or more.
• Pass rusher: Elite pass rushers affect both defensive efficiency and opposing offensive performance.
• Offensive line: Injuries along the line affect both passing and rushing.
• Cornerback/safety: Secondary injuries matter against explosive offenses.

How to use injury information

Don't just react to "out" designations. Consider backup quality, matchup context, and whether the line has already adjusted to reflect the injury.

Short weeks and rest

Teams playing on short rest (Thursday games after Sunday) may show lower efficiency, especially on the road. Extra rest (bye weeks) can help, particularly for older or recovering rosters.

Travel and time zones

West Coast teams traveling east for early kickoffs face adjustment challenges. The effect is debated but worth tracking.

Divisional games

Divisional matchups often produce closer games than the spread suggests. Familiarity can reduce advantages and increase variance.

Wind

Wind is the most impactful weather factor for totals. Sustained winds over 15 mph can reduce passing efficiency and field goal accuracy. Strong gusts (20+ mph) often push totals down.

Rain and cold

Rain affects ball security and passing efficiency. Extreme cold (below 20F) can affect passing and kicking. Dome teams playing in cold outdoor environments may struggle.

Even with the best analysis, NFL betting is high-variance. A disciplined approach focuses on process over outcomes:

• Set a bankroll: Define how much you're willing to risk over a season. Use flat betting to avoid overcommitting.
• Be selective: Focus on spots where you have a clear edge. Volume without edge means paying more vig.
• Shop for the best line: In the NFL, half-points matter around key numbers.
• Track your bets: Record your wagers, reasoning, and results to identify patterns.
• Respect variance: Even good bets lose. Don't chase losses or overreact to short-term results.